However, it will not reach the levels achieved in the US, where radio enjoys a 13% share. The forecast falls short of the Radio Advertising Bureau's stated long-term target of 10%.
Commercial radio will gain audience share from the BBC as it benefits from getting the lion's share of digital spectrum allocation. But it must provide increased choice to grow and segment audiences, warns Arbuthnot.
It calculates that by 2013, radio will cost 40% less than TV on an effectiveness-adjusted basis.