The news comes as media agencies and broadcasters prepare to begin TV-buying negotiations for 2006.
Media agency Starcom estimates the TV ad market for 2006 could be up 3.5% on this year at £3.63bn, but that ITV's share could fall 5.5 percentage points because of the weak performance of ITV1 going into the contract rights renewal (CRR) procedure.
Gary Digby, managing director of ITV Sales, admitted the shortfall on the CRR income could be as high as £190m.
Channel 4 looks the most likely beneficiary. Its core channel has performed strongly, E4 has gone free-to-air and the launch of More4 has bolstered its position.
ITV1's potential revenue woes have been exacerbated by Charles Allen, chief executive of ITV plc, who has said he is keen to abandon the CRR mechanism.
This has prompted agencies to move advertising spend away from ITV1 while they remain protected by the terms of CRR, which allows them to reduce their commitment to the channel while not being penalised on the price they are charged.
ITV will attempt to keep money within its portfolio, and Digby said ITV1's 2006 schedule would be stronger, with a better drama slate, more films, the World Cup and a reinvigorated daytime offering.
Digby also promised no repeat of mistakes such as Celebrity Wrestling.
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